In a village in rural America, people gather for an annual lottery. They play their tickets, hoping for the best. It’s a ritual that has been going on for generations and it’s rooted in the belief that there’s a chance of something bigger than yourself. In this story, the prize is a new house. But the odds are pretty stacked against the winner.
Lotteries have become a big part of American life. They raise funds for a wide range of state projects. The prizes are typically large sums of money. But the winners aren’t just handed the cash, it’s usually paid in an annuity over three decades. This means that the first payment comes when you win and then 29 annual payments increase 5% each year. If you die before all the payments are made, then the remaining amount becomes your estate.
What’s more, most people know that the odds are long. And they go in clear-eyed about that. Yes, they have quote-unquote systems based on non-statistical reasoning, about the luck of numbers and stores, and about which types of tickets are better. But they’re doing it rationally.
And there’s also the underlying message that you should buy a ticket because it’s good for the state, and it’s your civic duty, or something like that. That’s the other message that lottery commissions are relying on, and it obscures how much the games skew regressive in an era of inequality and limited social mobility.